Using the aforementioned song as an analogy for the current investment market, we discuss the how the markets look like a runaway train, the perils that presents for investors, but more importantly, the potential safety and money-making opportunities available to those who are willing to jump off the momentum express train.
We revisit the active/passive debate, the current obsession with measurement, the concept of weight, and the misguided measurement of risk. These phenomena present attractive opportunities to thoughtful, patient, long-term investors.
We discuss the essence of time and how do we account it in an era where the world’s central banks have suppressed the most important variable used to discount the time value of money. Since these developments have effectively rendered conventional valuation models useless we delve into how Kopernik tries mitigate it by, among other things, using Charlie Munger’s approach of turning the models upside down.
Taking cues from the 1977 Iggy Pop song bearing the same name, we discuss the distinctions between active/passive investing and why we at Kopernik prefer to be the driver, not the passenger.
Drawing similarities to the famous quote by Vince Lombardi, we discuss the currently inflated perception of the importance of ‘when’, the current opportunity to ‘win’, the prevalence of people playing not to lose, some thoughts on how the game is currently being played, and how this has left stocks so undervalued that returns are likely to be lucrative even if it takes a little time to materialize.
In his latest commentary, Kopernik analyst and co-portfolio manager for the International Strategy, Mark McKinney analyzes and compares how the current developed world’s characteristics such as inflation, excessive deficits, censorship and politicized economic decision-making are looking more like emerging markets. This begs rethinking the prevailing rules and risks applied in the valuations of both. Is the valuation premium awarded to developed markets for so long still warranted? Or do emerging markets with sizable discounts offer better investment opportunities due to the misunderstood risks?
In this whitepaper, Kopernik’s investment research team builds on our April 2022 webinar about geopolitical risk, breaking down our process and examples of both successes and losses in emerging markets. Evaluating geopolitical risk has always been a key factor in our global investment process. As global crises have made our role as investment manager more crucial than ever, our mission of being independent thought leaders could not be more pertinent.
In his latest commentary, Kopernik analyst and co-portfolio manager for the International Strategy, Mark McKinney, compares today’s U.S. market to the tech bubble of the late 1990s and 2000s. He also gives examples of the many “mini bubbles” that have already burst under the surface of the bigger names in the index. Lastly, there are some thoughts on the US Dollar, inflation, and gold.
In this whitepaper on ESG, Kopernik’s investment research team provides an update to our March 2021 webinar on the same topic. In summary, ESG is important, complex, and nuanced. This whitepaper will give an update on how we think about the current ESG environment, provide examples of the types of ESG risks we are evaluating, and explain how we integrate ESG risk into our valuation process.
In his latest commentary, Kopernik analyst and co-portfolio manager for the International Strategy, Mark McKinney, compares the actions of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the resultant inflation and choppy investment environment to the dangerous aspirations of villains in Hollywood spy films and how Kopernik is actively managing our investments through “the greater suffering.”
In his latest commentary, “Lord make me green…but not yet”, Kopernik Analyst Steve Rosenthal discusses a range of factors that handicap “net-zero” emission pledges around the world. While this ambitious goal will hopefully materialize, there resides a paradox in achieving it at the rate and extent we want/need.
Update on Russia/Ukraine Exposures (as of August 2, 2022)
Thoughts on the Ukrainian Situation (as of February 24, 2022)
David Iben, CIO & Lead Portfolio Manager and Alissa Corcoran, Deputy CIO & Director of Research discuss the investment implications of the Russia/Ukraine conflict.
Presentation: Investment Implications – Russia/Ukraine Conflict Presentation
Video Replay: Kopernik Global Investors | Investment Implications - Russia/Ukraine Conflict (Vimeo)
Transcript: Edited Transcript of Investment Implications - Russia/Ukraine Conflict
Note, the discussion took place on Friday, February 25, 2022 at 11 am ET. We continue to monitor developments related to the Russia/Ukraine Conflict.
Recently, Kopernik CIO Dave Iben spoke with Institutional Investor for a deep dive on the importance of investing in emerging markets—including Ukraine and Russia—and discussed where exactly to find opportunities in Eastern Europe. Read Dave’s full interview here.
Kopernik's CIO Dave Iben spoke to the Financial Times about why Russian assets still hold value, even in the wake of the war with Ukraine. Read the full feature on the Financial Times website here (Requires login)
On April 7, 2022, Kopernik Global Investors had a discussion on managing geopolitical risk in a global portfolio, apropos current events. It is Kopernik’s belief that today’s world almost requires that a considerable part of portfolios be allocated to emerging markets to provide refuge from the perils of significant overvaluations and protection from the inflation-driven erosion of purchasing power. Yet, there are many challenges when it comes to investing in developing countries. In this webinar, we discussed how Kopernik appraises and manages a portfolio of businesses in the various parts of the world.
Speakers: Alissa Corcoran, Deputy CIO, Director of Research, Analyst and Todd Tosti, Industrials Analyst
Hosted by: David Iben, Chief Investment Officer and Lead Portfolio Manager
Replay: Please use the webinar registration to view a video replay
Presentation: Managing Geopolitical Risk in a Global Portfolio Webinar Presentation
Transcript: Edited Transcript of Managing Geopolitical Risk in a Global Portfolio Webinar
